In partnership with
Good morning, VC enthusiasts. From Musk exploring a mega-merger of SpaceX, Tesla & xAI, to Waymo reaching $350M ARR with robotaxis, to real fundraising funnel data from an early-stage AI startup, this issue is all about how scale is really being built. Let’s jump in!
In today’s Inside/VC edition:
ELON MUSK
Image Source: NewsBytes
The Inside: Elon Musk is reportedly exploring a merger that would combine SpaceX with xAI or Tesla (or with both) into one super-conglomerate, potentially ahead of a monster IPO that could value SpaceX at $1.5T.
The details:
SpaceX has held discussions about merging with xAI ahead of a potential June 2026 IPO, with internal scenarios modeling a public offering that could value SpaceX at up to ~$1.5T.
Separately, Musk and close advisors have explored whether Tesla could also be folded into a broader structure, an idea some large investors are said to be pushing.
Two Nevada entities created on January 21 containing “merger sub” in their names list SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen as an officer, a common step when companies are preparing complex merger transactions.
In parallel, Tesla is considering a ~$2B investment into xAI, tightening the financial and strategic links between Musk’s AI lab and his public EV company.
Why it matters: A mega-merger would collapse rockets, satellites, AI models, robotics, and possibly EVs into one public vehicle. Instead of choosing between Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI, investors would effectively be buying a single “Musk stack” spanning space, energy, autonomy, and AI.
PRESENTED BY HUBSPOT (AD)
Want to get the most out of ChatGPT?
ChatGPT is a superpower if you know how to use it correctly.
Discover how HubSpot's guide to AI can elevate both your productivity and creativity to get more things done.
Learn to automate tasks, enhance decision-making, and foster innovation with the power of AI.
INSIDE/VC DATA
The Inside: We recently came across fundraising funnel data from an AI startup whose founder we had spoken to in the past. It provides a rare, concrete look at what a €2.5M Seed round actually looks like from first call to signed contracts.
The details:
98 First Calls → 31 Deep Dives
Around one third of initial conversations progressed into deeper product and strategy discussions, largely driven by momentum from the pre-seed round and warm intros from existing investors.31 Deep Dives → 10 Partner Calls
Movement at this stage was mostly about clarity on wedge, roadmap, and category direction, with funds that had clear internal ownership advancing faster.10 Partner Calls → 7 ICs
Once a partner was aligned, conversion became high, with ICs typically consisting of a short pitch, focused Q&A, and internal follow-up.7 ICs → 5 Term Sheets → 3 Accepted
The round ended slightly oversubscribed, giving the founders the ability to choose the three partners they felt strongest about working with.
What this shows: If you want to raise properly, you will end up talking to ~100 VCs. Fundraising is not a side task. It usually requires at least one founder full-time for several weeks. If you don’t treat it seriously, you don’t close. And if you don’t close, you slowly run out of money.
SHORTS
Apple says the iPhone just delivered its strongest quarter in history, with $85B in revenue in Q1, up from $69B a year earlier, driven by surging demand in China and India.
CEO Tim Cook highlighted record iPhone revenue in Greater China and double-digit growth in store traffic, while India posted quarterly revenue records across iPhone, Mac, iPad, and services, reinforcing that Apple’s next growth engine is emerging-market scale rather than mature Western markets alone.
OnlyFans is in exclusive talks to sell a majority stake to Architect Capital, in a deal that would value the platform at roughly $5.5B, according to sources close to the process.
The structure reportedly includes ~$3.5B in equity and ~$2B in debt, giving Architect a ~60% ownership stake, as founder-owner Leonid Radvinsky looks to partially cash out after years of outsized profitability from the creator subscription model.
SpaceX filed with the FCC to deploy up to 1 million solar-powered satellites that would function as orbital data centers for AI workloads, framing space-based compute as a way to meet exploding demand for training and inference.
The proposal comes as SpaceX also weighs deeper integration with Tesla and xAI, reinforcing a broader thesis where rockets, satellites, energy, and AI compute stack into one vertically integrated infrastructure play.
FUNDRAISING
📰 Everything else in VC & fundraising today
Waymo is reportedly raising a $16B round at a $110B valuation, with most of the capital coming from parent Alphabet, as the robotaxi company surpasses 20M lifetime trips and reaches ~$350M in annual recurring revenue.
Upwind Security raised $250M at a $1.5B valuation led by Bessemer Venture Partners to scale its “runtime” cloud security platform, after posting 900% YoY revenue growth and doubling its customer base since its 2024 Series A.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang denied reports that its planned $100B investment in OpenAI is stalling, saying Nvidia will “definitely participate” in OpenAI’s next mega-round as the company targets raising up to $100B.
Here’s our full January Fundraising Summary:
→ 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝟭𝟱 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗩𝗖 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗹𝗮𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗝𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 ←
CAREER CORNER
Hot VC Internships
🇩🇪🇬🇧 Earlybird Venture Capital - Visiting Analyst (London/Berlin) (LINK)
🇩🇪 HTGF | High-Tech Gründerfonds - VC Intern (Bonn) (LINK)
🇩🇪 Simon Capital - VC Intern (Düsseldorf)(LINK)
🇫🇷 Sowefund - VC Analyst Intern (Paris) (LINK)
🇫🇷 SISTAFUND - VC Analyst Intern (Paris) (LINK)
🇫🇷 XAnge - VC Analyst Intern (Paris) (LINK)
🇫🇷 Groupe SEB - VC Analyst Intern (Paris) (LINK)
🇺🇸 Pear VC - Product Intern (New York City) (LINK)
That's it for today!
See you soon,
Jannis & Felix — the humans behind Inside/VC